Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Bitcoin BTCUSD is breaking bullish out of its corrective symmetrical triangle pattern and is currently above minor resistance at around USD 71,790.
If breaking above all-time highs at around USD 73,835, Bitcoin has upside potential to the 1.618 projection of the top to the bottom of the triangle at USD 81,909, but could move as high as to the 1.764 projection at USD 83,816, which is also the same distance from the top to the bottom of the triangle – as illustrated by the two vertical blue dotted lines.
Bitcoin could experience a throwback after the breakout. A throwback is where the traded instrument is sliding back, testing the upper (falling) trendline of the pattern from the upper side. Bitcoin should not close back below, which would then hurt the upside potential. However, to reverse this bullish outlook, a close below USD 64,500 is necessary.
RSI is, at the time of writing, above the falling trendline and back above the 60 thresholds, supporting the view of Bitcoin resuming an uptrend
Ethereum ETHUSD is testing key resistance at around USD 3,677 and the 0.618 retracement.
A break above is likely to fuel a rally towards all-time highs at around USD 4,092. Some resistance at the 0.786 retracement at USD 3,870.
If breaking above USD 4,092, there is further upside potential to the 1.382 projection at USD 4,486, possibly to the 1.618 projection at USD 4,730.
If ETH is closing above USD 3,697, the strength indicator RSI is also likely closing back above the 60 thresholds, confirming the uptrend.
Conversely, a close below USD 3,200 is necessary to reverse the bullish picture
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.